Einstein dies. He goes to heaven.
The first person he meets he asks: ’Excuse me, what is your IQ?’   The answer is:  ‘280’.
‘Great’, says Einstein, ‘then we can talk about astrophysics’.
The second one he meets he asks the same question about the IQ.  Person says:  ‘150’.
‘Great, then we can talk about day-to-day matters’.
He meets a third one and asks    ‘Would you please tell me your IQ?’  The person says:  ‘45’.
“Great, you can tell me where Real Estate is headed.” 

I know- a rather sad opening.  Thankfully the saying goes: ‘Exceptions confirm the rule’.

How often this year have you cursed the ‘bleedin’ traffic, when you wanted just to pick up something in the city and needed the time equivalent to a flight to Jakarta?
And you wouldn’t be alone, because everyone around you thinks the same.

A guess, - if all the emotions of frustration and impatience at rush hour here are combined and released in one concentrated beam, this energy bundle could successfully frighten alien invaders off from visiting us – and over-populating Bali.

It took 100dreds of thousands of years for humans to reach 1 Billion; then in only 200 years we multiplied sevenfold.  Today there are 7.5 Billion of us and in 2050 an est. 9.8 Billion.
You sure can see a dilemma coming up.
However, not for everyone; you do something smart and the population growth becomes your blessing.  In fact, the population growth in Bali is higher than the national average.  It is hard to resist adding here, that with growing wealth and population property will ever become more sought after.  More on what property can do for you in a minute . . .

Because of a few shortcomings in Bali, (such as traffic jams), we all may have been asking ourselves if the decision to move to Bali and spending our hard or smart earned money here was right.  Didn’t you?     
Of course, should you read this on your sofa here in Bali, part of the answer is already given.  

However, it makes common sense to have doubt in our common sense.
Maybe there are some so far undetected reasons to really close the account, sell the things on
Bali Advertiser and leave for somewhere better?

Some insight can come from what  FORBES Magazine  says about recommended alternative destinations for living and also investing into a residence there:
Let’s pick just 3 from their Top 10 List:

Number one and for three years running is  PORTUGAL .

Why so?   Well, although at Europe’s southern end, connecting to cultural centres, (Paris, Rome, even Berlin and London) is within reasonable reach.

+          The Algarve, an ocean stretch of 200 km along the Mediterranean Sea, is green, hilly and appealing. This is where the mostly European expats flog to.
+          No restrictions for foreigners to buy property.
+          Property transactions in 2016 were up by 20%, - a sign of trust into quality of life there.
. /.       Villas / apartments there are expensive.  $ 1.630 / sqm  (Bali 800-1100)
. /.       Winter period is 4-5 month, often wet. Temp. down to 10 degrees
. /.       Portuguese language is difficult and not used widely in the world, in consequence expats. don’t enjoy a relaxed culture mix.
. /.       Consumer goods are 20-30% higher in price than in Bali.

Maybe MEXICO, No. 5  is better to move to ?

+          a Resident Permit is easy to obtain.
+          Foreigners can own property (however, via the unpopular setup of a bank trust).
+          cost of living slightly less than in Bali.
. /.       House / apartment prices in city and towns $ 1.100 – 3.000 /sqm, therefore rental yield is a moderate 5% only.
. /.       House prices drop this year, due to uncertainty (Trump), rising Gov. rates and rising violence;   in the first quarter 2017   5.775  homicides. Up 29% to the year before…
Seems it is more likely to be killed, than winning a decent amount of money in the lottery…
            Then we would do better with No. 10 on the list - VIETNAM  ?

+          2000 miles of ocean front.
+          green, beautiful landscape, hills and dense forest.
+          low cost of living.
+          welcoming friendly population.
. /.       Expats chose to live in large Cities, Hanoi /Ho Chi Minh city (8 Mill.). Reason:
            70 % of locals live in poor conditions in the countryside, - not to our taste.
. /.       City apartments $ 2.450 / sqm.   Property market is unstable,
. /.       No retirement visa scheme; language most difficult to learn, Cities polluted,
           100% import tax on cars. Expats get around on bikes and taxi, same as locals.

Other destinations, such as Colombia, or the tiny island of Malta offer a similar mix of plus and minus.

             So far  -  regarding the greener grass behind the fence. 

You all have your personal reasons to like or love what Bali means to you. Apart from the obvious, the sometime glorious dry seasons and being able to do many things, which in the eyes of someone in industrialized countries qualifies as definitely decadent.

Now, you may suspect that you will be talked into rushing to our office’s doorstep, in order to secure your slice of paradise in or near Ubud, or even invest into a second lot. That would mean carrying the proverbial owls to Athens… there is no need to push anyone, as you will see.

If you have sufficient money left and are mulling over what to do, buy shares or do day trading, getting this Dukati bike, which does 230 kmh  (maybe not a hot option, average speed in Bali is down to 38 kmh), or donating to the present US Leadership –
after thinking through what follows next, you have another real promising option.

You see, after the shock of the 2014 to 2016 property price rises in Bali has worn off, we can look at what will happen to the property market and how you can make money by thinking and acting now.

Take a minute to check out the property market cycle below.
You also have to know that, other what is common belief, the expats do  n o t   create the price development.   The heavy weight in market influence and pricing comes from Indonesians.

Over 80% of property investors in Bali are Indonesians.
They tend to use Bank Finance, hence the market cycle is following Bank Indonesia’s (BI)base rates.
Foreign buyers, although not using bank loans, are in the same way affected by the price movements which result from interest adjustments when BI Bank Indonesia tries to keep the market steady.    
(Btw.  You sure know that banks are not allowed to give loans to foreigners).

Cycles like this follow one by another.  However, it is not certain how long each segment in the cycle will last.
What is certain is, that this merry-go-round will go on and on. The banks adjust their lending rates according to finance demands and desired control or stimulation of the market.  Professional and private local investors follow and create the market movement. 
For example, if you bought in 2014 with a high price and want or need to sell today, in the slow market, it is hard to make a profit.
However, if you buy today in a level field, where not your competition, but your own skills determine your successful negotiation – and when you sell sometime in the next cycle, you make money.   No ‘if or but’.
There is much more to be said about how to purchase smart and with your desired degree of security. We open daily from 9.30 to 5.00. (Saturday until 1.00 only).

And – it would be really nice to meet you next month here again  

By. Ubud Property