March Newsletter Title : “Time travel - anyone?”

Good news first, - or the other ones?

Ok, you are brave and asked for it, the bad ones are next.

Before, quick a general word about why UbudProperty is joining into the oversupply of Covid-related world-wide chatter.
By now, even the last Eskimo in remote Alaska, or forest dweller in Kalimantan, has some idea that the world has to deal with an epidemic of global proportions.
That means, you, dear reader, are surely more effected than those staying in remote Alaska or near Bontang on Kalimantan, is there an easy way out?

If we at UbudProperty would cheerfully ignore the dire situation and only chat about the nice quiet times which presently allow us to lounge peacefully in the few remaining open restaurants, you would be forgiven to call a doctor to check on our mental health.
Bad is bad. No white washing here.

Once I had a boat in Sanctuary Cove on the Gold Coast in Australia. I often smiled about an elderly gentleman who lived on his yacht nearby, because he was extremely sarcastic. When he saw a man with long hair, he told me “look at this bum, there are so many like this one lining up for unemployment pay. To hell with them!”
And when I said: “but maybe this is a doctor or architect, who knows?”,
he went on: “Don’t give me such crap. One should not sugar coat, I will not say: ‘this is not so good’ , instead I call it ‘bad’.
At the time I was amused and not taking him too serious, although I liked the old fellow.

Today I am myself of a similar age and notice that I too become on occasions slightly sarcastic and more straight forward.
Is it, that with experience we tend to look behind the curtain, and discover what is meant to stay hidden from us, or is it a mental problem which needs to be addressed with red wine and ignorance? Please help me out.

Whilst still on this subject of being straightforward, it is one of the lessons, which our staff at UbudProperty strictly lives by. No sugar coating. It is what it is. Nothing more and nothing less. We thrive on honesty and trust!

Well, whatever happens from now on, ignorance and well-wishing does not get us anywhere further to overcome the time until when probably towards the end of 2022 some normality comes back into life.

You may know from own observation that a dreadful downside of the pandemic is, that almost half of the worlds working population has lost, or is on the brink of losing their jobs.
And, of equal concern right here in Bali, - will Bali ever fully return to the days when the local tourism economy provided direct and indirect employment for well over one million of the more than 4.2 million Balinese and others who live here? Place your bet.

You may have heard that the 6.3 million international tourists and some 10.7 domestic travelers that arrived on Bali in 2019 were supporting more than half of the economy and contributing IDR 116 trillion (USD $7.8 billion) to the island. 
However, if this massive tourist flood is actually desirable and of long term benefit to Bali is another question.

What is certain, this pandemic gives us a lesson to reconsider what the appropriate proportion of tourism on an island such as Bali, is.
Maybe a cure is in sight anyway, because the most likely outcome, is a return of visitors to Bali at around half the level experienced before the COVID-19 pandemic.

And on a related level, even the fundamental change to world aviation will affect life in Bali.

In Indonesia, as well as anywhere else, (except China) the major air carriers are out of cash and living under mountains of debt. Once large and respected international names in aviation are now on their knees. Airlines have been forced to mummify armadas of parked aircraft, closed international sales offices, retrenched staff, canceled new aircraft orders, and lost their former status as a global airline to become a regional carrier. Further proof that the appetite for bigger, better, and higher is no longer fashionable in aviation is found in the fact that the two super models – the Boeing 747 and Airbus A-380 – have recently ended their production run. Ticket prices will have to go up. Bugger!

In addition, the momentary or long-term disappearance of major sporting events, festivals, concerts, and international conferences will also have lead-on impacts on those airlines, hotels, and conference venues here, together with a whole range of supporting businesses

If finally, Bali tourism returns at a fraction of its former self, an Island already oversupplied with hotel rooms before the global pandemic will be even more so in the months ahead.
Desperate for cash, hotels will engage in a price war that will, over time, make Bali a cheap destination, over-supplied with rooms that are spiraling down into neglect and the lack of funds to maintain and refurbish. Any owner/operator who is following the trend towards an individual life style and private villas, which provide for social distancing will do alright.

They can offer housekeeping and kitchen staff at low expense, due to the difficulty to find contractual work. Likely the advantage of such family-style holiday in privacy and luxury will make villa renting more popular again.
If all of the above is true, - ‘WHAT’S IN IT FOR ME ?’
This depends on who is asking:
If you already live here, independent of income from local activity, A BETTER BALI is in it for you. Bali has time to clean up and look at what was wrong with over-tourism.
If you plan to live in Bali in the future, same applies. A Better Bali is coming out of the shell, PLUS right now, the best time ever, to secure your slice of paradise at reduced prices, which may never be seen again.
If you lived here and plan to return to your home Country, and join the international economic turmoil right where it will hurt, - maybe re-thinking this step has it’s merit.

Let’s look if there is possibly an upside to the Covid-drama. If so, what might that be?
An answer to this does not come easy. Amid exceptional uncertainty, the global economy is projected to grow 5.5% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022. The many small businesses which went bankrupt, or needed to close temporarily, or people who lost their job, surely will not contribute to this growth. Nothing good here.
The growth comes from mammoth businesses like Amazon, Tesla, Google, etc. who added in 2021 30% of their value due to the stock price increases.
So eventually there will be a snowball effect and employment in developed Countries should reach near former levels.

The real big winners are likely to be countries like China and South Korea that succeeded in suppressing COVID-19 early. China’s economy is projected to grow in 2021 by 8%, over twice that of the most successful western countries even before the pandemic.
However, if you have some grasp of global economics, the following comparison of the Gross Domestic Products (all products of a Country, produced in a year, expressed in percent of gain or loss), puts Indonesia near the top of the list. That is not bad at all.

Back to Bali.
On a local level it was an encouraging move, that on 16 March the Indonesian President Joko Widodo visited Bali. He stopped also in Ubud, to witness first mass vaccinations and discussed with the Governor of Bali, Pak Wayan Koster, a new relief regulation for Bali.

The President said: "I see that in the province of Bali we want to concentrate on three designated green zones, specifically Ubud, Sanur, and Nusa Dua. We are optimistic of these becoming green zones, green areas that we can fully open to tourists," the head of state remarked.

The idea is to vaccinate all people working or dealing with essential services and businesses in those three zones, before other areas in Bali, declaring these areas to be ‘safe zones’.

There you have it. Good intentions are there. If the administrations can now follow up in an organized fashion, -well, we will hold our breath.
At UbudProperty we certainly cannot wait. Clients told many stories of those wonderful mixtures, named Margharita, Singapore Sling, etc. Hopefully we have a choice when vaccination day comes.

As another move to normalize future tourism for Bali and to overcome the concentrated tourism, the President came up with a project called the ’10 New Bali’. The project focuses on tourism development on 10 new destinations across Indonesia to replicate the tourism growth that has happened in Bali. Among those destinations is Lombok, the Borobudur temple, Labuanbajo on Flores, Mount Bromo…
An underlying thought sure would have been be that new foreign investment is drawn to Indonesia.

From where you are sitting right now, what do you think. You are confident in investing in land on the slopes near Mount Bromo, or maybe buy, what seems better, a hectare near Labuanbajo (and wait for the infrastructure to come, which will bring your price up in 8-10 years?)
Or does it appear more reasonable to pick up some present interesting deals for land or villas near Ubud? (Combined with a FREE ticket for your own Good Life).

People would call this one a ‘no brainer’, right?

Again, my apologies. Today there is no further uplifting talk about the Good Life here in Ubud.
And indeed, sad things still happen almost every day.

So that you know what I mean - Yesterday I felt like having after month’s of abstinence a meal of decent juicy spare ribs at Naughty Nuri’s, here in Sayan, Ubud.
The waitress: “So sorry sir, ribs are just out, the next meat comes in an hour, we do not order so much these days. Care to wait?”

You see, we all have to deal with hardship, one way or the other.
I hope you also can hang in.

Wishing you well and safety before all else –

Ray
for the team of UbudProperty